How The Parties Nominate Presidential Candidates

By Emily A. Solley on March 12, 2016

Normally, calling a primary nomination cycle “exciting” would earn puzzled looks from most readers. Yet this year, both parties are in the midst of contentious battles for the nomination of their presidential candidates. These battles plaster the morning headlines and Facebook feeds without end, yet with many tuning into primary elections for the first time, there is little information on simply how candidates are chosen.

Right now, the candidates aren’t really “running for President.” They’re running to run. While they could prop themselves up as independent candidates, they are vying for the machinery and money a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate is guaranteed. Each party only gets one. So how do they decide who gets to run for President?

You will not find this process in the Constitution. The parties are independent political organizations, and they get to decide how their candidates are chosen. The process itself was born fairly recently (in the 1960s and 1980s) in order to make the common voter feel more invested in the process of selecting a candidate… and to save the parties some money.

Here is a basic explanation of how the process currently works, with the differences between the parties highlighted.

Primaries

Candidates need a certain amount of delegates to secure the nomination.

Both primaries and caucuses fill the function of assigning delegates to candidates. Essentially, voters cast a ballot to tell delegates, who will be their representatives at the National Convention, who to vote for.

Primaries are run and paid for by state governments. The process is much the same as a normal election, where voters go to a designated polling place and cast a vote. Some states have closed primaries, which means that only registered party members can vote in the primary election. Democrats vote for Democrats, Republicans Republicans. Other states have open primaries, which allows any registered voter to vote in both party primaries. Lastly, there are semi-closed primaries, which allow independent voters to choose which primary to vote in, rather than leaving them out of the process altogether.

Caucuses

Caucuses are run by the state wing of the party. Voters go to private events run by the party and cast their vote in more public ways, sometimes raising hands, other time sorting into groups to show their support. Caucuses are not governed by the same laws as primaries, but they used to be the most popular way to choose candidates.

The Result of Primaries and Caucuses

After votes are counted, delegates are legally bound to vote for particular candidates.

  • Democratic Party Delegate Allocation: As of 2006, each state gets delegates based on a complicated formula that balances the votes given to the Democratic candidate in the last election, the number of votes in the Electoral College, and the timing of their voting, with later states getting bonus delegates. States then distribute the delegates to Congressional districts. Candidates receive delegates proportionally to their share of the votes in the primary or caucus.

  • Republican Party Delegate Allocation: This is more complicated. The Republican Party gives states much more freedom in their delegate allocation, so depending on the state delegates are distributed by winner-take-all, proportional representation, or something in between.
The takeaway: Democrats don’t have to win in order to take delegates, but the closer they are, the less it matters who wins. For example, in Iowa, the .3% between Clinton and Sanders gave Clinton, the winner, a mere 2 delegate advantage. On the other hand, every vote matters for Sanders, who may be the underdog, but is winning primaries by mobilizing voters in surprising ways.
However, for Republicans, certain states matter more than others. The winner of states like South Carolina, Florida, and Ohio, get all of the delegates available. Donald Trump took only 32.5% of the vote in South Carolina but received all 50 of its delegates

Superdelegates: The Road to the National Convention

Well, if that wasn’t confusing and complicated enough for you, let me introduce the last piece of the puzzle.

A majority of the delegates are bound by voters, but some are free to choose their own candidates. These unpledged delegates are often called superdelegates. The parties treat them differently, so we’ll take a close look at the rules.

Democratic Party Superdelegates: A Bernie Sanders supporter no doubt looks at Hillary’s commanding lead in delegate count with confusion. This is mostly due to her strong support with superdelegates, who are unbound by voters and are mostly composed of party leaders. Superdelegates can cast their vote for whichever candidate they personally support, and as of right now, they are overwhelmingly supporting Hillary Clinton, giving her an apparent decisive lead over Bernie Sanders.

The rules governing superdelegates were in part created to give the Democratic Party more control over who was chosen to run for president. But this isn’t just about politics in the 1970′s.

That’s DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz explaining the purpose of superdelegates just last month.

As antiquated and elitist as this system seems, Clinton learned that she cannot rely on superdelegates during the 2008 election, when Barack Obama began winning primaries and superdelegates began jumping ship. They truly are unpledged, so there’s no guarantee that they will vote for Clinton… or for Sanders, even if he continues to win primaries.

Historically, superdelegates have never “swung” an election for an unpopular candidate. The party elite tends to listen to the voters. Again, see 2008 if you need an example. If Bernie Sanders continues to compete for pledged delegates, it would be unusual for the superdelegates to remain entirely on Clinton’s side.

Superdelegates make up about 15% of the total delegate count.

Republican Party Superdelegates: The Republican Party does have superdelegates, but they’re completely different from their democratic equivalents in everything but name.

As opposed to the Democratic Party, which makes almost every important party member a superdelegate, the GOP limits the category to three individuals from each state’s arm of the Republican Party. This brings their power to about 7% of the total delegate count.

However, the biggest difference isn’t in number, or in political status, it’s in voting power: as of 2015, Republican superdelegates must vote for whomever won their state primary. Unlike their Democratic counterparts, Republican superdelegates have no way to influence in an election in any particular direction… unless no candidate wins a majority of the delegates, in which case, the Republican National Convention will become a political free-for-all.

The National Convention and the Nomination

A candidate must make the minimum delegate count in order to win the nomination and be selected at the National Convention. The graph above shows only pledged delegates. The race is far from over for both parties, although Clinton’s lead is close to being untouchable.

The Democrats: There are 1,124 delegates still to be awarded in March, a number large enough for Clinton to zero in on the nomination, or for Sanders to make it clear that he will be around until June. The next few weeks will determine Sanders’ chances: he needs to keep the distance between himself and Secretary Clinton small in major contests like Florida, and Illinois. As delegates are awarded proportionally, he doesn’t need to win-he just needs to compete.

However, in order to win, he has to do better than tie. So far, his campaign has done well at winning in surprising ways. His win in Michigan proved that for at least one party, it is possible to defeat seemingly overwhelming odds by focusing on the issues. This came after other important wins in Colorado, Minnesota, and Kansas, which has swung for the Democratic nominee for 50 years. Where he loses, he continues to make it difficult for Clinton to win commanding majorities.

Nonetheless, his poor performance in states with high minority populations like Louisiana, Virginia, and Texas allowed Clinton to take a large majority number of delegates. Clinton can lean on her easy popularity with minorities, which is almost a given considering the Clinton machine has been fine-tuning its campaign strategy for over 20 years. But with her favorability rating plummeting to around 40%, and Sanders doing better with minorities each week, there is really no way to tell how the primaries will end.

The Republicans: Trump is not in the clear. He and Cruz are in a battle for delegates, but their share is limited by Rubio and Kasich. Even with relatively low counts, they draw votes from both candidates. It will continue to be a brawl until one of the candidates can draw ahead, and that seems increasingly unlikely to happen any time soon.

There are three winner-take-all and one winner-take-most contests in March, with 292 delegates up for grabs to whoever can manage a win. The biggest of these is Florida, with 99 delegates; the only state left with more delegates is California, which is winner-take-most. If Trump can win Florida, and continue to win in a majority of primary contests, he will easily pull even further ahead of the pack.

That might seem like a lot of numbers, but it comes down to this: if Cruz or Rubio are going to overcome Trump to secure the nomination, their best bet is winning in the winner-take-all states. After all, they don’t need to best Trump’s overwhelming media presence, they simply need to do slightly better than him in four contests. For Cruz, Florida will be an opportunity to come within reach of Trump’s lead. For Rubio, it might be his only chance to be considered a real competitor.

However, recent analysis shows that Donald Trump might never reach the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination. Even if he falls short by less than 100 delegates, it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the party that has outspent him 3 to 1 puts him on their national ticket.

What Will Happen if No Candidate Has a Majority?

This rare situation would result in a brokered convention.

Although both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton seem well on their way to securing a majority, their opponents have made it more difficult than previously anticipated. Should they continue to do so, it could mean that Donald Trump will never reach 50% of delegates.

In that scenario, the convention turns into a political free-for-all (albeit with some complicated rules). For the most part, at various stages in the convention, pledged delegates are released from their bound candidate and allowed to recast their vote. From there, it is back to old-fashioned politics, as candidates cajole, barter, pledge, and beg their way to votes. The candidate who wins in this setting depends quite literally on who is in the room. As state delegates are released, the political leaning, party standing, and personal opinions of those delegates take on more importance.

This used to be the norm. Candidates were selected in smoky back rooms, with little transparency or public involvement. Paradoxically, some political scientists think the primary system actually gives parties more control over who is nominated.

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